A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
